The rise and fall of civilizations is an economic cycle

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Civilization may be seen in the rise and fall of cities.

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The cycle of civilization is a cycle of dispersion and concentration of wealth. The growth and decay of cities and nation-states is evidence of that cycle. The "saucer-shaped" pattern traced by interest rates during the course of ancient civilizations is evidence of that cycle. The inequality that troubles Piketty is evidence of that cycle.

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If the growth of wealth outpaces the concentration of wealth, times are good; otherwise, not.

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Arnold J. Toynbee showed that civilizations rise and fall in a recognizable pattern. Homer and Sylla show that interest rates are intimately involved in the process. Keynes identified the interest-rate trough in the cycle of civilization as "the greatest age of the inducement to investment."