Wednesday, February 28, 2018

My thoughts exactly!


I noticed the words cycle chart in a link to Mosler's, so I went looking. This graph, from John Burns Real Estate Consulting, LLC:


The text on the graph reads in part: "The shallow, low-growth trajectory of this expansion gives us confidence that this cycle has room to run."

That's it! That's what I was thinking. I wish I could have said it so clearly.

I've quoted John Taylor (from 2016) on this:
Because the economy has grown from the start of this recovery at a pace no greater than the prerecession trend, it has left a vulnerable gap of unrealized potential that can and should be closed with faster economic growth. In several key ways the US economy resembles an economy at the bottom of a recession...
I guess you could say that economic growth has to end in recession sometime, so the longer growth continues the more likely recession becomes. But if you look at it the way John Taylor did in 2016, growth didn't even start yet.

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