The Employment Level increased far more in January 2025 than in any month since January 2021 -- far more than in any month of the Biden administration, we might say:
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| https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E8kq |
Despite all the sudden change in the first weeks of the Trump administration, despite all of the unknowns arising from the threat of 25 percent tariffs, despite the decline of employment due to the federal workforce reductions of Musk and DOGE, despite the warning from the CEO of Alcoa that
the tariffs could cost about 20,000 US aluminum industry jobs and a further 80,000 jobs in sectors that support it.
"This is bad for the aluminum industry in the US, it's bad for American workers," he said.
In addition, according to Google's AI Overview,
Ford CEO Jim Farley has warned that tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be devastating for the U.S. auto industry.
Reuters adds
"What we're seeing is a lot of cost, a lot of chaos," Farley said on Tuesday at a Wolfe Research conference.
None of this news, none of these views, are good for the economy. Furthermore, I don't see it in the data, but CBS News reports that "Consumer confidence plunged in February amid rising economic concerns". Expectations, when they are falling, can undermine even a good economy.
And even Trump supporters see a rough spot in the road ahead. According to VOX (November 1, 2024):
If elected, Trump has vowed to put Musk in charge of a “government efficiency commission,” which would identify supposedly wasteful programs that should be eliminated or slashed. During a telephone town hall last Friday, Musk said his commission’s work would “necessarily involve some temporary hardship.”
"Temporary hardship."
Days later, Musk suggested that this budget cutting — combined with Trump’s mass deportation plan — would cause a market-crashing economic “storm.”
"A market-crashing economic storm."
On his social media platform, X (a.k.a. Twitter), an anonymous user posted Tuesday that, “If Trump succeeds in forcing through mass deportations, combined with Elon hacking away at the government, firing people and reducing the deficit - there will be an initial severe overreaction in the economy…Market will tumble. But when the storm passes and everyone realizes we are on sounder footing, there will be a rapid recovery to a healthier, sustainable economy.”
A severe overreaction downward -- but one that I say will not be an over-reaction. The anonymous user's references to sounder footing, rapid recovery, and a healthier, sustainable economy are conclusions that I, for one, am unable to reach. Optimism these days is a dangerous thing.
Musk replied, “Sounds about right.”
Musk is excessively optimistic.
Many people seem to think that you can do whatever you want, set whatever economic policy you want to set, and run with it, no problem. I don't think like that. I think persistent bad policy will always lead to a crisis and severe recession like we had in 2008-09 and for some time after. And I think a severe recession can become a depression, and a severe depression can become a Dark Age.
I think this is serious business, and our policymakers need to think long and hard and clearly and carefully about what they are doing. I understand, that if and when a Dark Age comes, it will be the wealthy few who are left owning everything. I understand that these owners of "provinces" will become the leaders of the new governments that arise in those provinces. I even understand that the wealthy few may look forward to such developments, though I do not. Most people seem not to think about such things.
Most people seem not to realize that it is possible to prevent such developments by correctly understanding the problems of our economy -- that is to say, not the surface problems that people have with the economy, but the deeper imbalances that disturb our economy and are never addressed -- and by correctly addressing those imbalances.
It should be clear that the policymakers who allowed the troubles of 2008-09 to develop and come to fruition were not able to understand the imbalances that disturbed our economy, nor properly address them. Far as I can tell, the Trump team is even further than that from the economic thinking they need. The Trump team seems to have a "set whatever economic policy you want" mindset, and is nowhere near correctly understanding the imbalances that disturb our economy.
Musk said we should expect some "temporary" hardship. Yeah, and the last guy to use the word "temporary" in a context like that was Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell in March 2021, when he said we should expect some "temporary" inflation.
The pandemic recovery aside, the employment level increased more in January 2025 than at any time since January 2000. I don't believe the January 2025 number. I think Trump went with the fake news.
1 comment:
Two paragraphs from "Commerce Secretary’s Comments Raise Fears of Interference in Federal Data" at the New York Times, 4 March 2025.
In their first parag, as I say elsewhere, THE GOVERNMENT-COMPONENT-OF-GDP IS READILY AVAILABLE AND CAN EASILY BE SUBTRACTED FROM GDP TO GET THE DATA LUTNICK AND TRUMP WANT:
"The Bureau of Economic Analysis, which is part of Mr. Lutnick’s department, already produces a detailed breakdown of G.D.P. into its component parts. Many economists focus on a measure — known as “final sales to private domestic purchasers” — that excludes government spending and is often seen as a better indicator of underlying demand in the economy. That measure has generally shown stronger growth in recent quarters than overall G.D.P. figures."
In their second parag, IF THE "MOUNTING SIGNS" THEY REPORT ARE CORRECT, THE ECONOMY IS SLOWING. IF SO, IT IS EVEN MORE SUSPICIOUS THAT THE JANUARY 2025 EMPLOYMENT LEVEL INCREASED SO MUCH MORE THAN THE TYPICAL INCREASE THAT THE GRAPHS SHOW.
"In recent weeks, however, there have been mounting signs elsewhere that the economy could be losing momentum. Consumer spending fell unexpectedly in January, applications for unemployment insurance have been creeping upward, and measures of housing construction and home sales have turned down. A forecasting model from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta predicts that G.D.P. could contract sharply in the first quarter of the year, although most private forecasters still expect modest growth."
THE MAN IS A LYING SACK OF SHIT AND HE SHOULD BE CHALLENGED FOR IT AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY.
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