Thursday, March 20, 2025

A Certain Uncertainty

FRED Source Graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1ERg3

Uncertainty fell rapidly in the first four months of the Biden presidency. Uncertainty rose sharply in the month of Trump's election, then paused for two months, and rose sharply again in February of this year. Between the rapid Biden decline and the sharp Trump increase in policy uncertainty, we see Biden's four years. 

During those four years, uncertainty ran low from April to October 2021. Then it rose until October 2022. Then it dropped off until August 2023. Then it ran lower, until the election. 

The second graph shows the Biden years:

FRED Source Graph: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1EW8a

The blue line shows policy uncertainty during the Biden years. The red line shows "the Biden inflation". The paths of the two lines show interesting similarity, don't you think?

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