Sunday, December 15, 2024

Note the economic underpinnings of his thought

From a PDF excerpt of Benjamin Friedman's 2005 book The Moral Consequences of Economic Growth:

Our own experience, as well as that of other countries, demonstrates that merely being rich is no bar to a society’s retreat into rigidity and intolerance once enough of its citizens lose the sense that they are getting ahead

Actually I prefer the version in my paperback copy, page 5, which begins with the words

And as we shall see from our own experience ...

which makes it sound as if Friedman could see twenty years into the future, to the rigidity and intolerance of our time -- rigidity and intolerance that arose when enough of us lost the sense that we were getting ahead.

Let me quote a whole paragraph from Ben Friedman's PDF:

I believe that the rising intolerance and incivility and the eroding generosity and openness that have marked important aspects of American society in the recent past have been, in significant part, a consequence of the stagnation of American middleclass living standards during much of the last quarter of the twentieth century. If the United States can return to the rapid and more broadly based growth that the country experienced during the first few decades after World War II—or, more recently, the latter half of the 1990s—over time these unfortunate political and social trends will continue to abate. If U.S. growth falters, however, or if it continues slowly to benefit only a minority of U.S. citizens, then the deterioration of American society will, I fear, worsen once more.

And 20 years later, here we are.

If Friedman is right about this, and I think he is right, then what we need is better economic growth, without the supply-side focus that shifts income from labor to capital, and without so damn much finance. 

If the growth of finance had been restrained, that shift-to-capital would have been more toward non-financial business, the sector that actually produces output and, thus, economic growth.

Now let me quote myself:

The problem is the cost of excessive finance; the cause is economic policy; the reason is either (a) politicians still think that credit is good for growth and debt is not a problem, or (b) politicians are rich and make a lot of money by lending. I'm not sure which.

But I'm pretty sure. My money's on policy: The problem is policy, driven by the thinking that the use of credit is good for growth, and by the thinking that debt accumulation is not a problem (except of course for government debt). That thinking creates bad policy. Pruning back bad policy will give rise to better growth.

 

It is excessive private sector debt that holds back private sector growth.

The periods of prosperity Friedman mentions above -- "the first few decades after World War II" and "the latter half of the 1990s" are times of persistent increase on this graph:

Private Sector Debt relative to Federal Debt: FRED Graph 1CdIg

That persistent increase shows how the private sector pays for the prosperity that it creates. But the persistent increase comes to an end when private sector debt becomes excessive and unsustainable.

This same pattern of persistent increase and sudden failure appears in the prosperity of the Roaring Twenties and the onset of the Great Depression.

Now you know how to fix the economy. Help me make it happen.

5 comments:

Jerry said...

Yeah, it occurs to me that this (where government policy has been to rob from the poor and give to the rich using finance and degulation, basically) has been going on for more than 2 generations.
I wonder if maybe the occupations of germany and japan worked (i.e. turned them into allies) but afghanistan and iraq didn't, because the first lasted for so many generations that none of the people alive there today can really imagine anything other than being a democracy, being an ally, enjoying the peace dividend, not trying to forge an empire by conquering their neighbors, etc.
But what happens when you have 2-3 generations of people who have only ever known a corrupt government that was out to rob them, and fewer and fewer people can even imagine one that might actually trying to help (or, if not help, at least try to preserve the balance of civilization instead of tipping it further into feudalism...)?
I guess we are finding out what happens.

The Arthurian said...

Wow... I think you are onto something, that after two or three generations much of the old thinking has been replaced by the new thinking. I think this is equally true of Germany and Japan after WWII, and of the US today.

What's different is that after WWII, G and J were welcomed into a time of prosperity. But we, since 1975 or so, have been left to fend, in an economy in decline. For Germany and Japan then, for China today, prosperity. For us, prosperity has been unobtainable, so it is the resulting "unfortunate political and social trends" that establish the new frontier we enter on 20 January.

Rereading your comment... It seems we differ somewhat. You seem to stress that "government policy has been" bad, and government itself "corrupt". (Or perhaps you are only describing what you see around you.) I stress "the economic underpinnings" of Friedman's thought, and I quote him saying that "society’s retreat into rigidity and intolerance" happens when voters "lose the sense that they are getting ahead." I speak of "prosperity" and you of the "peace dividend" but these are not really the same. I think that fixing the economy is the only way to avoid the the fate that everyone seems to want to avoid.

Ben Friedman and I are of one generation; you are of another. Reminds me of Jude Wanniski, whom I value for his one statement that "you have to have lived in the 1950s and 1960s to have experienced a good economy."

Thank you for the "Moral Consequences" book, by the way.

PS: I think mainstream economics is wrong, and therefore that policymakers DO NOT KNOW HOW to restore prosperity. I think that if they knew how to do it, they would do it. But there are not many people today who think as I do, that is for sure.

PPS: I do not think we can go directly to feudalism, as that would require going backward in time. I think we need to follow the cycle on its natural course and have the Dark Age, then a Charlemagne who rekindles the monetary economy, and then a lot of development before we can get to feudalism. It will not be a pleasant journey.

The Arthurian said...

"... describing what you hear around you."

Jerry said...

I meant that the policy is bad, yes. But I think it might be bad on purpose because it is bad in a way that "just so happens" to benefit certain people.

The Arthurian said...

Yeah, I just didn't want to put words in your mouth.

Maybe it doesn't matter whether we think they do bad policy on purpose or not. If voters understood what policy was needed and what policy should be taken down, then the economy would improve.
However, in my whole life I don't think I ever convinced anyone to accept my view of good and bad policy.
No matter... I do this for my own satisfaction... It's their loss, not mine.