Wednesday, December 4, 2024

Yadda yadda yadda, economic performance declines

Following up on my previous post. Here is the graph, again:

Graph #1: Financial Crises and Economic Growth

The Trump Musk DOGE plan to cut two trillion dollars of federal spending is a plan that will almost certainly create a financial crisis unless it is offset by a two-trillion-dollar increase in private-sector investment -- two trillion dollars in addition to the investment already planned for the year of federal budget cuts. That increase is not likely to happen.

Graph #2: The Red Line Shows a Two-Trillion-Dollar Increase in One Year

All of the investment shown on this graph since the first quarter of 2017, in total, adds up to less than two trillion dollars.

And again, as Milton Friedman said,

There is strong evidence that a monetary crisis involving a substantial decline in the quantity of money is a necessary and sufficient condition for a major depression.

You know how many times Google finds this Friedman quote on the internet? 8 times. Almost no one is focused on the problem of an insufficient quantity of money. But as Yoda says: You will be. You will be.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

What is it that keeps us from seeing that depressions are caused by monetary restrictions? Take away someone's car, home, property, etc. and how do they feel? Obviously, denying someone their money is going to be troubling, but keep it coming in, moving the system forward, a big Yes!