Thursday, January 31, 2019

Elizabeth Warren, Michael Dell, Inequality

At the LA Times: Elizabeth Warren’s wealth tax proposal is constitutional, experts say — and necessary. By Michael Hiltzik, Jan 25, 2019.

Constitutional and necessary? That probably depends on who you ask. Makes me worry that Michael Hiltzik is writing for lovers of fantasy.

From the article:
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a newly declared presidential candidate, has turbocharged the progressive attack on income inequality with a proposal for a “wealth tax” aimed at Americans with net worth of more than $50 million.
An attack on wealth inequality, maybe, if it's a wealth tax. The article continues:
Warren herself hasn’t issued many details of her plan. But according to UC Berkeley economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman, who advised her on the proposal, the tax would be 2% on net worth above $50 million and another 1% on net worth above $1 billion. They say it would affect about 75,000 U.S. households, or less than 0.1% of the total, and raise $2.75 trillion over 10 years. That’s about 0.1% of gross domestic product per year.
"That’s about 0.1% of gross domestic product per year." So, obviously not a tax designed to balance the budget. That's interesting. It tells me Elizabeth Warren has something other than balancing the budget in mind. (I didn't know politicians could think about anything else!)

It doesn't need to be a big tax, to limit the growth of inequality. An inequality tax, if fully effective, would reduce inequality to the point that no one is subject to the tax. It would bring in zero revenue. To bring in no revenue these days, with inequality so extreme, would likely mean the tax is too weak. But even with a stronger tax, over time the revenue from the tax would fall as high-income earners redesigned their incomes to avoid paying it.

Myself, I'd pick maximum levels for income and wealth -- levels that answers the question "How much is enough?" -- and tax everything above those levels at 100%. This would create a true limit to inequality. Anything less than a 100% tax on income or wealth above the limit would slow but not stop the growth of inequality. It wouldn't solve the problem.


From the article:
The super-rich haven’t been shy about speaking up for their prerogatives. Asked at the Davos economic conference this week about the suggestion by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) to raise the top marginal income tax rate to 70% on high incomes, computer tycoon Michael Dell dismissed it out of hand.

“Name a country where that’s worked. Ever,” Dell said. To which Erik Brinjolfsson of MIT, a member of Dell’s speaking panel, promptly replied: “The United States.” Brynjolfsson schooled Dell by informing him that from the 1940s through the 1960s the top rate on income ran as high as 94%. “Those were actually pretty good years for growth,” he said.
Hiltzik thinks he has a zinger here.

The years from the late 1940s through the 1960s were better than "pretty good" years for growth. And income tax rates were definitely high. But there is no reason to assume that high tax rates on income were the cause of the good growth; that is fantasy.

What one can say with confidence is that high tax rates did not make good growth unattainable. And really, this is all one needs to say about tax rates and growth.


From the article:
Dell also said he contributes to society via a family foundation, adding: “I feel much more comfortable with our ability as a private foundation to allocate those funds than I do giving them to the government.”

It’s proper to observe that Dell’s multibillion-dollar fortune is based on mail and online orders of computers — in other words, on infrastructure created and funded by the government he disdains.
Hiltzik makes the point that Michael Dell's fortune was made by taking advantage of the economic environment our government created to promote general well-being and the pursuit of happiness. It's a good point. Dell is not a super-hero, except in his own mind.

One piece of the puzzle Hiltzik leaves out is the business tax code. By favoring growth, the tax code gives advantage to those who do grow. And the tax advantage grows right along with the business. So the lucky few gain almost all the advantage, and everyone else is left in the dust.

This tax advantage is why we've ended up with very few, very large corporations in most any industry you look at. It's also why we have so many private foundations like Dell's, which, by the way, pay no income tax.

This tax advantage is also what makes anti-trust generally ineffective.

From the article:
The question boils down to whether you want society funded out of the whims of Michael Dell or the debated judgments of your elected representatives.
I think there is a stronger argument. The question doesn't boil down to whim versus judgment. It boils down to whether capitalism, and society as we used to know it, can survive while inequality grows ever more extreme. The answer, I think, is obvious: It cannot survive. Society is already changing. And capitalism is giving way to financialism.

The time has come to reverse the trend and reduce the growth of inequality.

5 comments:

Jerry said...

I think of it more in terms of paying for the services that you use. e.g.: federal and state taxes go to pay for the military, police, fire department, highways, etc. Do the military and the police and the fire department only protect the assets that you bought with this year's income? No, they protect all of your assets. Every year, they protect all of your assets. That protection is fairly expensive, every year. We should pay for it in proportion to how much we have in terms of assets -- not income.
(Similarly...everybody who gets their food from the grocery store (instead of from hunting and gathering, I guess) benefits from the highway system. But the guy who owns a car benefits more. And the guy who owns a supermarket or a trucking company benefits even more. A wealth tax more accurately allocates this cost than an income tax does.
And even things like welfare or unemployment -- they have the effect of keeping society stable, preventing revolution, preserving the status quo. High net worth taxpayers benefit way more from that than the people receiving the welfare do...)

I think: start by replacing all taxes with a flat tax on net worth. e.g. you don't need a corporate tax because somebody owns the shares, and they'd be taxed there. I'm sure there'd be special cases (maybe a deduction for up to X dollars of actively worked farmland, maybe a cigarette tax, whatever). But you should start from something that makes sense, and then apply distortions when it makes sense.

Starting from an income tax is already a huge distortion. I suspect that this distortion is the cause of the growth in inequality, and that problem would go away by itself if we just fix the distortion. i.e. the government doesn't have to address inequality directly, it just has to design the tax code in a fair way such that people are paying for the services they receive. (I could be wrong about that.)

I don't like the idea of the 100% marginal rate because it undermines the good thing about capitalism, which is that the system is designed to harness the power of human selfishness and turn it toward the general betterment of society through innovation. I think that whatever the optimal solution is, it will involve a big chunk of that. But, just speaking from experience, it seems that it can't be 100%...we have plenty of examples of special cases in which the market empirically does not arrive at the right answer by itself (pollution, healthcare, inequality, education, defense)...I guess "the common defense and general welfare."

jim said...

The myth that the US tax system is progressive is probably the biggest factor in the cause of income/wealth inequality.

If you look at the total economic activity of the US, it is probably well over a quadrillion (1000 X trilion) dollars. Fedwire transactions alone are $850 trillion/year and the NYSE has $100 trillion in equity sales so that seems like a reasonable estimate.

If every single economic transaction were taxed at 0.5% that would generate as much in revenue as all the current Federal, state and local taxes now raise.

Now look at the economic activity of the lowest 1/5th of population by wealth and their tax burden. That group has income of around 1/2 trillion and their economic activity is not much more than their income since they have no surplus to play with. Their tax burden is around $80-$100 billion if you include all the taxes that fall on the lower 1/5ths economic activity including all taxes on wages, excise taxes and all state and local taxes.

As has been already pointed out it is reasonable to tax economic activity because without a functioning govt most of it would simply not be possible, but it is also obvious to me that the economic activity of the lowest is dragging around a huge ball and chain while there is an enormous amount of economic activity that has little or no burden of tax at all. Its no wander one form of economic activity is thriving and the other is dying.

Jerry said...

That's an interesting idea. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around the implications or bottom line effect there. I make whatever I make, and spend pretty close to 100% of it. But I only spend each dollar once. Does it mean that I would wind up paying 0.5% (or maybe 1.0% if you count receiving the dollar as activity) on my income as tax? It seems too low?

Similarly, if somebody is hoarding a bazillion dollars in his bank account or in the market or wherever, and pays himself a salary of $1, and drawing out a reasonable stipend to live on ... he's paying I guess 0.5% on whatever he spends? Yet the government is working all the time to protect his bank accounts for him?

I think I'm not understanding it correctly.

One thing I like about it is: it seems increasingly implementable, as money becomes less paper and more electronic. I have some concerns about how easy it would be to implement a wealth tax, just practically (i.e. it's easy to track income because there are pay stubs or whatever. But how do you really know what the net worth is? Even for myself, I can only guess).

jim said...

Jerry,
First of all, I mentioned this as a thought experiment which may reveal how enormously regressive the current tax system is. Its not really intended as a serious proposal.

You got it right. The sale of your time and labor to an employer would be .5% The same tax as on the sale of stocks and bonds. If you spent all your wage that would also be taxed at .5% so your total economic activity would end up taxed an amount equal to 1% of your income, but lets say the seller is responsible for the tax. So you would pay .5% and whoever you bought stuff from would pay .5%

If some of your income was not spent and remained in your bank account, that would not be taxed until it is spent. The wealthy are not sitting with tons of money sitting idle in the bank as you might imagine. The surplus money of the wealthy is out there working but that work is not usually not being taxed

I agree that taxing wealth is problematic. We do tax real estate property so that might be a model for a wealth tax on other assets.

The Arthurian said...

See also: Why Have Other Countries Been Dropping Their Wealth Taxes? by Timothy Taylor.

For example: "A wealth tax will tend to encourage borrowing. Total wealth is equal to the value of assets minus the value of debts. Thus, one way to avoid a wealth tax is to borrow a lot of money..."