I want to look at profit relative to the cost of labor for nonfinancial corporate business. I'm using datasets from FRED's handy data table, so I know I've got datasets that go together.
The graph below shows profit per dollar of labor cost. It consistently shows low profits (and relatively high labor cost) at recessions, and high profit (and relatively low labor cost) between recessions:
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The Graph at FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1IPrF |
Profit is now above 30 cents per dollar of labor cost -- and rising in the years since Covid. That puts profit as high today as it was at times in the 1940s, the 1950s, and the 1960s. So I have to ask: If profits are so good, why is our economy so bad? (Excessive private debt, that's my answer: We didn't have excessive household debt in the 40s, 50s, and 60s. In recent decades, however, debt service takes an increasingly hefty chunk of after-tax income. It also eats into business profits.)
Put a straightedge on the lows in the first 50-odd years of data. You see profit in decline for half a century, then increasing since the 2001 recession. Again: If profits have been rising for a generation, why is our economy so bad? And why should we believe Trump when he promises to fix the problem? Is he gonna forgive private-sector debt? Household debt? Student debt, even?
Maybe he will, if we tell him: Tell him it will boost economic growth. But tell him also, it won't do much for the economy unless he forgives a lot of debt. And tell him if he does, it'll be worth his while: With Solon, Trump will be remembered.
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