Federal employment as percent of US population

I googled federal employment as percent of US population.

The AI Overview says "The federal workforce makes up about 0.6% of the U.S. population. This percentage has remained stable over the past decade..."

Pew Research says "In November 2024, the federal government employed just over 3 million people, or 1.87% of the entire civilian workforce, according to BLS data."

Then I went to FRED to see the big picture:

"All Employees, Federal" as a percent of US "Total Population"
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1E6Gp

 I do not understand the urgent need to cut the federal workforce. I think we'd be better off getting rid of the policies that promote Excessive Reliance On Credit (EROC) in the private sector, and letting our economy grow. We could then watch as federal deficits turn into surpluses as they did in the 1990s.

By the way, the thing that killed off the good economy of the 1990s was our rapid return to EROC. But getting rid of those EROC-promoting policies would allow the good growth & the budget surpluses to continue.

9-to-1 Against

Wrote myself a note this morning, 3:34 in the morning:

I have to look at the chances of Depression, the chances of Trump creating a depression with his cut-cut-cut.

So I googled Trump and the risk of depression.  I looked at the first page of results, and I was seriously disappointed. Of the 10 results on the first page, nine were about mental health -- either Trump's own, or ours being put at risk by his decisions.

Only one of the 10 results on the first page was about the kind of depression that could put our economy in the toilet for a lifetime. Only one of the 10 could look past the insanity of the moment and see a bigger problem. One out of ten, plus two related links for the Quora result. 

At East Asia Forum we have "Trump’s trade madness risks global depression if retaliation’s not measured". The article is focused on Trump's tariff policy. I've been studying the economy since 1977, but I never studied tariffs because the topic never came up. I couldn't even spell "tariff" until Trump made the topic relevant again. Google's AI Overview, Gaio, says

The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 was a law that raised tariffs on imported goods in the United States during the Great Depression. The law was intended to protect American businesses and farmers from foreign competition.

How it impacted the economy:

• The law raised tariffs on agricultural imports and more than 20,000 imported goods 
• It led to global trade declining by 65% 
• It is widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression

The bullet points agree with what I think I know -- tariffs aggravated the decline of trade and made the Great Depression worse.

Hey, I think our massive trade deficits are a big problem, but I wouldn't go with tariffs. Other things are wrong, that need to be fixed. Applying the wrong solution is always, always, always  a bad thing to do.

The East Asia Forum article ties economic depression to tariffs. (Funny thing is, the word "depression" occurs only in the article's title.) My concern links economic depression to the Trump/Musk cuts in federal spending. I think both concerns are important, the tariffs and the spending cuts. And I think our concern, yours and mine, about the possibility of depression, economic depression, is strengthened by having two or more reasons to be concerned.

At Quora, "What is the likelihood of another Great Depression occurring due to President Trump's trade wars with China and other countries?" The question is about "trade war", about tariffs. Dan Cougherty expresses concern about a wide range of troubles pointing to recession or worse, including: deficit spending; income inequality; "systemic risk in the lending markets" around the time of the Great Recession; and the "lack of oversight" that created it. Comparable problems in finance are still with us. It was finance that made our 2009 recession "great". And excessive, unjustified confidence could easily do it to us again.

Again, at Quora: "Is there a chance of another Great Depression because of Trump?" Here, the answer focuses on tariffs and trade even though the question does not. Baba Vickram Aditya Bedi offers some good insights:

"Any manufacturing returning to the U.S. would take years well beyond the scope of the Trump presidency to even begin to matter to the macro American economy. However, the tariffs and loss of relationships with U.S. Allies and trading partners will have a relatively faster impact. The forced expulsion of migrant workers will have an even greater immediate impact."

The policies that boost US growth will take a long time to develop. The policies that undermine growth will will have their effects sooner. This combination of outcomes tends away from growth, and toward recession or depression.

As for the rest of these Google Search results, you and your mental health are on your own.

 

I would probably find better links if I kept looking. And I will. But it troubles me that almost no one seems to see the real disaster that threatens us: the Greater Depression. I know Trump said he "doesn't want to be another Hoover". And I even believe that he meant it. But his economics is not even close to understanding what must be understood, nor to doing what must be done.