Tuesday, March 31, 2020

You'll never find the problem if you look on the wrong graph

Eric Boehm at Reason:
During Trump's first three years in office, he's signed off on spending plans that added at least $4.7 trillion to the national debt. The debt totals more than $23 trillion, a record high. When measured against the size of the economy, it is approaching the all-time record set during World War II.
Yeh:

Graph #1: Gross Federal Debt as a percent of GDP

But there is a difference between the Federal debt now and back at the end of World War II. And the difference doesn't show up on the debt-to-GDP graph.

Here is the difference:

Graph #2: Gross Federal Debt as a percent of Debt Other Than Federal Debt
The Federal debt today is low in comparison to everyone else's debt. That was not true at the end of the Second World War.

Even during and after the financial crisis of 2008, Federal debt growth amounts to no more than a wiggle on this graph. That shows the truly massive size of debt other than Federal.

And it shows that the big increase in Federal debt since 1980 (which you can see on the first graph) has done nothing to reduce debt other than Federal.

It even shows why the big increase in Federal debt has done nothing to solve the problem: We have done nothing to reduce debt other than Federal.

But none of this shows up on the debt-to-GDP graph.

No comments: