per Capita growth

The deeper I got in the writing of "The Expectation of Growth (part two)", the more I got stuck in the muck. I wanted to talk about changes in the trend rate of RGDP growth in the post-WWII period, first from 4% to 3, then from 3% to 2. I wanted to come back around to this graph:

Graph #1

But to be comfortable with what I wanted to say, I had to look at growth in the years before the second World War. And when I did? Muck. I went looking for "nothing but improvement" in the rate of RGDP growth per capita. I didn't find it. I should have known. After all, Mark Perry said we can count on 2% real growth in the long-run. That's stability, not improvement. I have to learn everything the hard way.

Thinkin about it now, maybe if I'd been looking at RGDP rather than its growth rate, I'd have seen improvement. Another time, maybe I'll do that. Meanwhile, here's what I got on the growth rate of RGDP per capita:

Graph #2

Two percent growth would be a straight, flat, horizontal line a little above 0%. Both the red and blue lines are in the neighborhood of that (though obviously they're not straight). The red is a Hodrick-Prescott of the blue. The blue is a 9-year moving average, centered, based on the gray. The gray is annual growth rates, based on MeasuringWorth data for Real GDP per capita.

Looking at the graph now (now that the pressure's off) I see a high spot around 1940: World War Two. And I see a low spot in the mid-1860s: Civil War? Those two spots nicely divide the red line into three parts. The first part shows an upward trend. The second and third show a downward trend.

I could have it wrong: Maybe not the low of the mid-1860s, but the high around 1880 is a break point. Even so, the trend from 1800 to 1880 is upward. And the trend from 1880 to 1930 is downward, as is the trend since 1960.

Were I to apply these observations to my "cycle of civilization" I could put the peak of the cycle around 1880: GDP growth rises to that point, then falls, then falls again. Maybe there is more here than I thought.