Wednesday, July 31, 2024

Inflation and Prices

At The New Yorker, 11 Feb 2023, "Does the President Have Control Over Inflation?":

On Tuesday night, President Biden used his State of the Union address, in Congress, to touch on a range of pressing issues, including infrastructure, insulin prices, Roe v. Wade, Chinese surveillance, and the war in Ukraine. But he chose, early on, to address one topic that Americans feel especially strongly about. “Here at home, inflation is coming down,” Biden said, to waves of applause. “Gas prices are coming down. Food prices are coming down.” He added, “Inflation has fallen every month for the last six months.”

I shouldn't say, because Biden's quotes are taken out of context. But it looks like President Biden does not know what inflation is: He says inflation is coming down. Then he gives two examples of prices coming down. Then he says again that inflation is coming down. The way the paragraph presents Biden's words, "inflation" and "prices" are interchangeable terms.

Maybe it is Biden who misunderstands the terminology. But three separate quotes from Biden are joined up in that paragraph, so maybe it is the author of the New Yorker article that misunderstands the terminology. Or maybe the author just dumbed things down for the rest of us. Dunno. But here's the thing: If prices are going up, that's inflation. If inflation is going up, that means prices are going up faster than before. And if inflation is coming down, prices are still going up.

Inflation coming down is not the same as prices coming down. Inflation means prices are going up. The prices can go up faster (if inflation goes up) or they can go up slower (if inflation comes down), but either way the prices are going up.

Oh, and at the Federal Reserve they talk a lot about "stable inflation". That sounds like stable prices, but it is not the same. Stable inflation means prices are going up at about the same rate (maybe 2 percent every year) every time you check. But stable prices means prices are NOT going up, and inflation is ZERO.

Sunday, July 28, 2024

Many problems...

There are many problems in our world today. Most people -- people who present the news, for example, and people who receive the news -- most of them seem to think the problems are political.

I think the problems are economic. So I googled the economic problem. You can probably guess what the search turned up: Scarcity.

Almost everything Google turned up was a restatement of what Lionel Robbins said about scarcity, something he said in 1932, before there was such a thing as macroeconomics.

I asked about the economic problem because I think there is one central, overriding problem, one root problem from which our many problems grow. 

Google answered: Scarcity.

It reminded me of "the motto of Mr. Crockett's company: Many problems, one solution." But the central problem of our time is not scarcity. It is excessive private-sector debt. 

The one solution is to reduce that debt.

Saturday, July 20, 2024

Trump created the Biden inflation

Recently we looked at this graph. I like the colors, so I'm showing it again:

Graph #1: Blue is the interest rate. Tan is inflation. Brown is blue behind tan.

The purpose of the graph is to compare inflation to the interest rate, because the interest rate is the tool used by the Federal Reserve to control inflation. Inflation increased for a whole year with the interest rate at zero, before the Fed raised the interest rate. 

The graph only shows a few years. It would be difficult to see what the graph shows, if it showed a lot of years. But I can show it a different way: I can subtract the blue data from the tan. I can subtract the interest rate from the rate of inflation. This way we get only one line on the graph, a line that shows how much the rate of inflation is above (or below) the interest rate. This graph:

Graph #2: The Rate of Inflation less the resistance provided by the Interest Rate

The graph is a hobbyist's version of the Federal Reserve "reaction function": It shows how hard the interest rate is pushing down on inflation.

The tallest spike on the graph, on the right, after the year 2020, shows the so-called Biden inflation. It shows that the rate of interest (which was then zero) did not push inflation down at all. The graph shows how very unusual policy was in response to that inflation. Policy was never more lenient. No spike ever went so high.

The early years on the graph, until 1980, show rapid increase at every recession. The biggest (highest and widest) of these spikes comes late in the 1974 recession. But even that spike is small, compared to the Biden spike.

After 1980 on the graph the plotted line goes low, because the interest rate went very high due to the policies of Paul Volcker. It takes a long time for the line to come back up to the zero level. This shows a long period when the interest rate was significantly more than the rate of inflation.

When we get to the Great Recession of 2008-09, interest rates drop to zero, so even 2 percent inflation puts the plotted line above the zero level.

Recovery from the Great Recession was lengthy and slow. Late in 2015 the Fed at last had enough confidence in the economy to start bringing the interest rate up from zero to something closer to normal. Then in 2020 the coronavirus hit, and the Fed dropped the interest rate back to zero.

A year later, in March 2021, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that we would be getting some inflation, some "transitory" inflation he said. That same month, inflation started climbing. 

Interest rates remained at zero for a year after Powell's warning.

The interest rate started going up in March 2022. The tall spike on the graph peaked in March 2022, and started to come down as interest rates went up. Not a coincidence.

Interest rates at zero offer no resistance to inflation. As the first graph shows, when the Fed finally started raising the interest rate in March, inflation peaked three months later, in June. By July inflation was coming down. It was not difficult to stop the rise of inflation. There was no lengthy process involved. 

There was a whole year when the Fed chose to do nothing instead of raising the interest rate. So inflation went up and up. And then, because inflation went up so high, it took a year to come back down. But when they finally did decide to raise the interest rate, there was no difficulty getting inflation to go down instead of up.

So the question is: Why did the Fed refuse to raise the interest rate for a whole year? I blame Trump. This wasn't Biden's doing. It was election interference by Donald Trump. 

By the way, Biden supports Federal Reserve independence. Trump doesn't. Trump wants to stick his finger in there to make things go his way. I think he already did. I think Trump created the Biden inflation.

Friday, July 19, 2024

A Nixon Chronology

In "How Richard Nixon Pressured Arthur Burns: Evidence from the Nixon Tapes", Burton A. Abrams writes:

In Nixon’s 1962 (p. 309-310) book, Six Crises, he recounts that Arthur Burns called on him in March 1960 to warn him that the economy was likely to dip before the November election. Nixon writes that Burns “urged strongly that everything possible be done to avert this development. He urgently recommended that two steps be taken immediately: by loosening up on credit and, where justifiable, by increasing spending for national security.”

The idea was to improve the economy enough that Vice President Nixon would win the election and take his turn as President when Eisenhower's second term was up. But no steps were taken, and Nixon ultimately lost to John F. Kennedy. Abrams writes:

But when then-Vice President Nixon took this recommendation to the Eisenhower Cabinet, “there was strong sentiment against using the spending and credit powers of the Federal Government to affect the economy, unless and until conditions clearly indicated a major recession in prospect.”

This excerpt ends as they all should, with economic policy actions reserved for economic rather than political purposes. But then, this one wasn't Nixon's decision.

From the National Review article "(More) Politics At The Fed?", dated April 28, 2004, which Wikipedia's "Arthur F. Burns" article attributes (in footnote 13) to Bruce Bartlett:

Richard Nixon was acutely aware that Fed tightening in late 1959 brought on a recession that began in April 1960. As the nominee of the incumbent party, Nixon took the blame for slow growth. In his book Six Crises, he complained bitterly that the Fed had, in effect, thrown the election to John F. Kennedy, whose most potent campaign pledge was that he would get the economy moving again.

From the "Federal Reserve Chairman" section of Wikipedia's article on Arthur Burns:

Nixon later blamed his defeat in 1960 in part on Fed policy and the resulting tight credit conditions and slow growth.

The purpose of economic policy, in Nixon's view, was not to promote the general welfare, but to make things better for Nixon.

From Politico, 10 October 2020: "The Time Nixon’s Cronies Tried to Overturn a Presidential Election"

[Nixon's] top aides and the Republican Party, almost certainly with Nixon’s backing, waged a campaign to cast doubt on the outcome of the election, launching challenges to Kennedy’s victories in 11 states."

It didn't work, that time.


From "Nixonomics: How the Game Plan Went Wrong" by Rowland Evans, Jr. and Robert D. Novak, in Atlantic Monthly, July 1971:

During that difficult decade after his defeat in 1960, aides and close friends had heard Nixon say privately time after time that had President Eisenhower only taken his and Arthur Burns's advice early in 1960 and moved rapidly toward stimulating the economy, he -- not Jack Kennedy -- would have been elected President. The implication, not quite stated flatly, was that Richard Nixon, if he had the power, would never again go into a presidential election with the economy in a state of deflation.


From The Chennault Affair  at The LBJ Presidential Library

Fifty years ago this year, on Oct. 31, 1968, President Lyndon B. Johnson announced a halt to the bombing of North Vietnam in hopes of encouraging peace talks to end the Vietnam War. At the time, Johnson knew a secret. Some in the Nixon campaign were secretly communicating with the South Vietnamese Government in an effort to delay the opening of the peace talks. They offered the prospect of a better deal for South Vietnam if Nixon became president...

When he learned of the back-channel communications, President Johnson called the effort "treason."

From “This Is Treason” at The LBJ Telephone Tapes:

Three days before the 1968 presidential election, President Johnson contacted Senate Minority Leader Everett M. Dirksen [R–Illinois] to inform him that the White House had received hard evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation that the campaign of Republican presidential candidate Richard M. “Dick” Nixon was interfering with Johnson’s efforts to start peace talks to end the Vietnam War. In this call, Johnson referred to contacts between Nixon’s campaign and South Vietnamese president Nguyễn Văn Thiệu that urged Thiệu to thwart any such negotiations.


From the National Review:

When Nixon became president in 1968, he vowed that he would not let the Fed do it to him again. At his earliest opportunity, he appointed a trusted aide, Arthur Burns, to the chairmanship of the Federal Reserve. His job was to make sure that money and credit stayed easy through the 1972 election.

As Wikipedia has it:

After finally winning the presidential election of 1968, Nixon named Burns to the Fed Chair in 1970 with instructions to ensure easy access to credit when Nixon was running for reelection in 1972.

Later, when Burns resisted, negative press about him was planted in newspapers and, under the threat of legislation to dilute the Fed's influence, Burns and other Governors succumbed.

Abrams writes:

Evidence from the Nixon tapes, recently made available to researchers, clearly reveals that President Nixon pressured Burns, both directly and indirectly through Office of Management and Budget Director George Shultz, to engage in expansionary monetary policies prior to the 1972 election.

And then there was the election interference called "Watergate", with Nixon's people breaking into Democratic headquarters and getting caught in the act. I refer to the "Smoking Gun" tape section of Wikipedia's Nixon White House Tapes article:

Nixon announced his resignation on the evening of Thursday, August 8, 1974, effective as of noon the next day.

 

Finally, from "Trump and Nixon were pen pals in the ‘80s. Here are their letters" at Politico:

The last letter in the Trump-Nixon series is dated Jan. 26, 1993. Trump writes to Nixon not long after his 80th birthday to thank him for a birthday photo and says, “You are a great man, and I have had and always will have the utmost respect and admiration for you. I am proud to know you.”

Birds of a feather.

Thursday, July 18, 2024

What if Trump really did create the Biden inflation?

If you were convinced that Trump had created the Biden inflation, what would you think? Was it worth it?

Trump would say of course it was worth it, because it made people angry and unlikely to vote for Biden.

But what about the Trump supporters? Was it "worth it" to them, to do this to Biden? I think most of them would say No, not worth it. 

Their lives changed. Like the rest of us, now they worry about having enough money to eat every day and pay the rent.

You don't do that to the economy. You don't create 9 percent inflation just so the other guy will lose the election. And you don't do that to people, whether they vote or not.

If Trump did delay the rise of interest rates and did really create the Biden inflation -- and if people knew of it -- Trump lovers and Trump haters would be on the same side, and Trump would lose the election. It would be a landslide loss.

If we don't find out about it and Trump wins the election, that doesn't make it okay.

Wednesday, July 17, 2024

Blue is the interest rate. Tan is inflation.

Inflation went above the 2 percent target early in 2021. The Federal Reserve waited a year before raising interest rates.

Graph #1: Blue is the interest rate. Tan is inflation. Brown is blue behind tan.

Why the year-long delay? Clearly, inflation continued to grow worse until they raised the interest rate. Clearly, inflation started to go down soon after the interest rate started to go up. Why the delay?

Was it election interference by Donald Trump?