Thursday, November 9, 2023

Shares in cost since 1987

Labor's share:

At FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MPU4910141

Capital's share:

At FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MPU4910131

"Share in cost" is at least approximately equal to Share of income:

At FRED: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1b9SO

Tuesday, November 7, 2023

A difference often overlooked


"It is useful to distinguish between supply and demand causes of rising inflation, because supply-driven (or cost-push) inflation is associated with a decline in output, while demand-driven (or demand-pull) inflation is associated with a rise in output."
from "Inflation in the U.S. Economy: Causes and Policy Options", Congressional Research Service

Wikipedia: "The Congressional Research Service (CRS) is a public policy research institute of the United States Congress. Operating within the Library of Congress, it works primarily and directly for members of Congress and their committees and staff on a confidential, nonpartisan basis. CRS is sometimes known as Congress' think tank due to its broad mandate of providing research and analysis on all matters relevant to national policymaking."


See also:
"The most important difference between cost-push and demand-pull inflation"

Monday, November 6, 2023

The wages of finance

Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees,
Financial Activities versus the whole Private Sector

The Difference in Average Hourly Earnings:

Graph #1: Difference between average wages in finance and the private sector overall
at the grunt level

I subtracted the "Total Private" average wage from the "Financial Activities" average wage to see the difference. The Financial Activities wage was less than the Total Private wage until 1992. Since 1992, the Financial Activities wage has been the bigger number.

In the 1960s the average hourly wage in finance was 25 to 30 cents less than the private sector average.

In 1979, finance was a dollar less.

In January 1982, finance was $1.15 less. That was the low point for finance.

In December 1991, the financial wage was two cents less than the overall average.

In February 1992 the financial wage was two cents more than the private sector number.

In July 1998 finance was a dollar more than the private sector average.

In August 2003 finance was $2.08 more.

In May 2012, $3.01 more.

In May 2014, $4.06 more.

And in August 2023, the average grunt-level financial wage was $5.07 more than the average for all the grunts in the private sector.


But if you ask me, none of these numbers matter. What matters is the unrelenting uptrend visible in every aspect of finance.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

Three from Paul Samuelson

"... there is only one valid reality in a given economic situation, however hard it may be to recognize and isolate it. There is not one theory of economics for Republicans and one for Democrats, not one for workers and one for employers." 

 

"Individual virtues can be restored to being social virtues, provided we are able to restore a healthy environment of adequate aggregate demand for the product of business."

 

"... the political health of a democracy is tied up in a crucial way with the successful maintenance of stable high employment and living opportunities." 

 

From Chapter 1 of Samuelson's Economics, fourth edition (1958).

Saturday, November 4, 2023

Thursday, November 2, 2023

This morning the Democrats have lost the November 2024 election

The news this morning tells of big-city mayors getting together to beg the federal government for money, because of costs related to the immigrants bussed out of Texas.

Government spending is NOT the cause of our continuing economic troubles, but PEOPLE THINK IT IS THE CAUSE OF THOSE TROUBLES. And the Democrats' questionable immigration policies now come down to a matter of government spending.

The only thing the Republicans need to say now is "I told you so" and the 2024 presidential election is theirs.

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Sent

I found a site called USAFACTS. Lots of data & graphs. They say they are nonpartisan, and to me this looks pretty close to the truth. They say USAFACTS was founded by Steve Ballmer, former CEO of Microsoft.

They say "We exclusively use publicly available government data" and they mention their trust in that data. This is somewhat unusual by today's standards but I see it as a plus.

They say "We don’t make judgments or prescribe policies." This leaves me a little uneasy, because some combinations of the facts are more meaningful than others, and some combinations of the facts only convey false impressions. But what can you do?

They say: "Whether government money is spent wisely or not, whether the quality of life is improving or getting worse — that’s for you to decide." That leaves me nervous, given the way things are going.

They say: "Americans deserve unbiased facts straight from the government to have serious, reasoned, and informed debate." But of course they don't say it is almost impossible to make a dent in the massive machinery of that "informed debate" by adding even one more piece of information to it.

I sent em an email anyway.