Saturday, June 3, 2023

The inflation is over. And there is room for prices to come down.

I'm looking at the right end of this graph, the recent end:

Graph #1: Labor Share

Since 2010, the "new normal" for Labor Share has been around the 100 level, meaning in this case about equal to its 2012 value. 

It looks like covid and the covid recession of 2020 drove labor share way up. (But I don't see a big fall in corporate profits at that time.)

The graph of labor share, to my eye, does seem to show increase since 2015: It doesn't go below the 100 level since 2015. Labor Share was trying to inch its way up. 

The big covid-related spike ends in 2020 Q2: midyear. Since that time, Labor Share has fallen back and is now almost back to the 100 level, our "normal".

Since things are almost back to normal, the disturbance appears to be about over, and I'm thinking this means that the post-covid inflation is just about over. Come to think of it, inflation is not much in the news anymore. The complaints, yeah, but not the newscasters' excitement over the big new monthly increases. I guess inflation is just about done for now.

And what has changed? Not Labor Share. Labor Share is back to normal. But profits are higher since the covid recession:

Graph #2: Corporate Profits

They'll probably stay at the high level, too... Come to think of it, there does seem to be room for prices to come down.

But don't hold your breath.

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