Thursday, May 4, 2023

ReBlogging 'A Pictorial History: Private and Public Debt'

I first posted this back in March of 2016. Ten graphs, all the same image but with different yellow highlighting. Later that same day, netbacker posted the graphs on Twitter and added some text -- and a lot of meaning -- to them.

Recently I posted a one-graph version. Now, since the topic came back, I figured I'd re-post the 2016 version. I'm including netbacker's text above each graph.


A Pictorial History: Private and Public Debt


1. The graph shows the size of private debt, as a multiple of public debt, for the years 1917 to 2014:

This graph shows the level of private debt relative to the level of public debt.
Or you could call it Non-Federal debt relative to Federal debt.
The older (blue) data are from the Bicentennial Edition of the
Historical Statistics. The newer (red) data are from FRED.
All these images use the same graph, with different highlighting.

2. The Ratio of Private to Public Debt Fell During World War One. Public debt rose faster than Private debt:

The Ratio of Private to Public Debt Fell During World War One

3. After the War, the Roaring Twenties. Private Debt rose faster (lower debt burden at start) than Public Debt:

After the War, the Roaring Twenties

4. The Great Depression and World War Two. Shows previous raising Private Debt isn't sustainable, eventually crashes:

The Great Depression and World War Two

5. After World War Two, a "Golden Age". Having deleveraged, Private sector is again ready to take on more private debt:

After World War Two, a "Golden Age"

6. Beginning Around 1974, Two Decades of Sluggishness Ensued. You guessed it - private debt burden begins to hurt again:

Beginning Around 1974, Two Decades of Sluggishness Ensued

7. Beginning Around 1994, a "Goldilocks" Economy. Good Years. - Clinton surplus leads to overburdened Private debt:

Beginning Around 1994, a "Goldilocks" Economy. Good Years.


At this point, Netbacker added an info box about the (not too hot, not too cold) Goldilocks years: 



8. Since 2000, Slowing Growth. An overburdened private sector couldn't take on more private debt:

Since 2000, Slowing Growth

9. The 2008 Financial Crisis and Aftermath. Private sector debt Deleveraging at Max Speed:

Crisis and Aftermath

10. Time for A New "Goldilocks" Economy? Does history Repeat or does it Rhyme?

A New "Goldilocks" Economy?

THANKS AGAIN, NETBACKER! Your words add so much to my pictures.

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