An unexpected recovery?

Robert W. Fogel, in NBER Working Paper No. 11125:

At the close of World War II, there were wide-ranging debates about the future of economic developments. Historical experience has since shown that these forecasts were uniformly too pessimistic. Expectations for the American economy focused on the likelihood of secular stagnation; this topic continued to be debated throughout the post-World War II expansion.

You never know. Our economy came back much better than expected after the second World War. What are the chances of a comparable recovery after the pandemic?

You never know. But some things are obvious.

• If Congress bickers to death over Covid stimulus money, it will be the death of our economy. They call it a "war", this fight against the pandemic. So let them spend the money to fight it like a war.
• Everyone's itching to get out of the house. Nobody says they want to go out and spend money, but spending money is part of the process. When the time comes, and "sheltering in place" is behind us, consumers may just provide enough demand, and business enough supply, to drive the economy to exciting new heights. You never know.
• The world will be different; there is no doubt. One wonders how we will manage. But here, there is an easy answer: Human ingenuity will pave the way. The world is already different; many protections are already in place: At the grocery story, the auto parts place, and almost everywhere, the changes we have already seen are remarkable and inspiring.

Don't be surprised if the economy turns out better than we expect. Just saying.