Friday, February 14, 2020

How's Trump doing? (the last quarter-inch on the right, on the graphs)


After what I've been hearing in the news, I was surprised to see the Federal debt running almost flat in the Trump years:

Graph #1: Gross Federal Debt as a Percent of Gross Domestic Product
Our slow economic growth pushes the ratio up, so Trump Years Debt is not growing much at all. Certainly nothing like the skyrocket of 2008-2010, which was a response to the financial crisis.

But also nothing like the increase of the 1980s. From the news reports, I thought Trump might be following Reagan's plan. That's apparently not the case.

Next graph: Debt other than Federal, relative to the Federal debt:

Graph #2: Non-Federal Debt relative to Federal Debt
It seems we've settled into a gradual decline. Non-Federal debt is growing more slowly than the Federal debt, but not much. Actually, the slope looks about the same, since 2014, as from 1974 to 1994 when productivity was down and the economy was not perky.

That's too bad. It means we can look forward to a listless economy. If the ratio was running uphill as it did from 1994 to 2000, and in the years before 1974, we could expect a strong, vigorous economy.

Don't hold your breath.

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