Productivity, smoothed

Quarterly data. "Annual rate" values would be about four times what's shown on the vertical scale.

Gray is the source data from FRED. ("PCH" is "Percent Change".)
Red is an undersmoothed Hodrick Prescott (smoothing factor 50).
Black is a sixth order polynomial trendline by Excel, based on the red.

A sixth order poly based on the gray looks identical to the one based on the red. I thought that was interesting.

As far as predicting what's next for productivity, I'm thinking: Look at the lows in the gray (quarterly) data. The last two lows are a lot higher than what came before. Could be a hint.

And remember: Productivity can rise quickly.

See also: Debt Service and Labor Productivity Projections from August 2016.