Friday, October 29, 2021

"Taxes must be levied" to pay interest on the federal debt

Krugman, "Nobody Understands Debt" (1 Jan 2012):

Now, the fact that federal debt isn’t at all like a mortgage on America’s future doesn’t mean that the debt is harmless. Taxes must be levied to pay the interest ...

 

Peterson, "What is the Primary Deficit?" (18 Feb 2021):

To evaluate the government’s fiscal situation, analysts typically reference the total deficit — the gap between total federal spending and revenues. However, another measurement — the primary deficit — focuses on the difference between government revenues and spending, excluding interest payments...

Even without accounting for interest payments, federal spending has frequently outpaced revenues — causing the government to run primary deficits. Over the past 50 years, annual federal revenues have equaled or exceeded non-interest expenditures only 13 times.

"Taxes must be levied," Krugman says, "to pay the interest".

Based on Peterson's information, three-quarters of the time the federal budget is in deficit even before they get to paying the interest on the debt. You could turn that fact around and say that three quarters of the time, they just the borrow money to pay interest on the debt. Three quarters of the time, taxpayers don't foot the bill.

The statement "Taxes must be levied to pay the interest" is true only 25% of the time, or 26% if you're fussy. It's a weak argument, a bullshit argument, to say taxes  must be levied to pay interest on the federal debt. I wouldn't make such an argument.


For the record, this is the first time I ever found something from Peter G Peterson the least bit useful.

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