"The Trump Depression" by Robert Kuttner, 5 March 2025, at The American Prospect. The subtitle says "Donald Trump is on track to be the
first president to deliberately engineer a severe depression." That was
the first reference I found to Trump creating a depression. The statement
is clear and, I think, correct. The goal is depression, and the intent
deliberate.
The second reference to depression that I saw was S2E8
of "Have I Got News for You". About 8:50 into the video, Roy Wood Jr
asks "What happens of Trump's tariffs don't work and America ends up in a depression?" And again, about 9:14 into the video, Roy Wood Jr asks:
"If the depression hurricane is off shore, how close is it to landfall?"
It is a comedy show, but Roy Wood Jr was expressing honest concern.
Don't fast-forward to the depression quotes. Watch the show, it's so funny. It's my new favorite show.
The
third reference to depression is from "Smerconish" on CNN. Season 2025,
the 12 April episode. At the end of the episode he shows a cartoon of Trump wearing a hat that says "Make America
1929 Again". It's perfect.
I'm glad the topic comes up once in a
while because if we are going to have a depression, it is best not to be
caught by surprise. Anyway, these things take time to develop. And if
people believe Trump is creating a depression, and react negatively,
there is time to change course. Of course, the reaction to Trump's
policy would have to be strong and severe.
In the American Prospect article, Kuttner asks: "What in the hell does Trump think he is accomplishing?"
It's
a good question. I have been waiting, focusing on the news, trying to
understand what Trump's plan is, trying to understand how "tariffs" and
"Greenland" and "bullying" and all the other pieces of his plan fit
together. It finally struck me about two days ago: He's creating a
depression. Thank you, Mr. Kuttner, for helping me see it.
Kuttner says:
A
related key question is whether Trump has any master plan for the
economy here, or whether he is just batshit crazy. The evidence is that
Trump’s effort to destroy the government reflects a certain malign
consistency, but that his effort to destroy the economy is based on
sheer ignorance and impulsivity.
It's not ignorance
or impulsiveness. It can't be. It's a plan. A "deliberate" plan to
create a depression. As Kuttner has it, "There are several distinct
elements" to Trump's policy, "all cutting in the same direction, all
interacting with each other, all needless." Together, they will create a
depression.
Depression opens a door to the future that Donald Trump wants.
Trump
wants regime change. He doesn't want democracy. He doesn't want to be
restrained by the US Constitution. He wants to be a dictator -- "for one
day," he said. Dictator for a short time, and then Emperor: Emperor of
the Western Hemisphere: For now, Emperor of the US, Canada, Greenland,
and Panama. Before long, no doubt, also Mexico and most or all of
Central and South America. Willing to trade Gaza.
Why create a
Depression? A depression will make it easier to get rid of the US
Constitution. A depression will be the last straw, convincing an
overwhelming majority of Americans that the existing US government is
the cause of our economic problems and must be eliminated. They will
torch the US Constitution and line up behind their Emperor.
But
the proximate cause of our economic problems is excessive private-sector
debt. The cause of that cause is that our economic policies encourage
us to use credit, to help our economy grow. Using credit to grow the
economy works best when there is little accumulated debt. It does not
work at all when we have been encouraged to use credit for 80 years and
our accumulation of debt has become massive.
Required reading
First, read something that will give you a feel for how very good a good economy can be: From Time Magazine, Friday 31 December 1965: "We Are All Keynesians Now" at Brad DeLong's site. Or, if that title turns you off, read the first few paragraphs of Jude Wanniski's "The Way We Were":
... you have to have lived in the 1950s and 1960s to have experienced a good economy.
I want to be sure you know that for a very long time our economy has not been good. Wanniski says it well, but the Time article really makes you feel it.
Second, read page 30 from William E. Leuchtenburg's Franklin D. Roosevelt and the New Deal, 1932-1940.
I want to be sure you see that when a bad economy is very bad, people
react as if the problem is political. Leuchtenburg tells us that
Henry Hazlitt proposed abandoning Congress for a directorate of twelve men.
He also quotes Barron's from 13 Feb 1933:
"Of
course we all realize that dictatorships and even semi-dictatorships in
peace time are quite contrary to the spirit of American institutions
and all that," remarked Barron's. "And yet — well, a genial and
lighthearted dictator might be a relief from the pompous futility of
such a Congress as we have recently had. ... So we return repeatedly to
the thought that a mild species of dictatorship will help us over the
roughest spots in the road ahead."
Yes, you can
change things by abandoning Congress. Yes, you can change things by
abandoning the US Constitution. But if you want to change the economy,
you need to do economic things. And if you want to improve the economy, then you must correctly understand what the problem is, what the economy's problem is, so that when you change economic policy the economy changes in the way that you want.