Monday, June 28, 2021

Prices rise to absorb the wages paid

Last time, looking at "percent change from year ago", Graph #3 showed the Consumer Price Index. #4 compared two price indexes, one for output and the other for wages, for the Nonfarm Business Sector.

Checking my work, I noticed what appeared to be a strong similarity between the wage index on #4 and the CPI on #3. Following up, we look now at that similarity. First, for the 1948-1962 period:

Graph #1: Consumer Price Index 1948-1962 (blue) and a
Nonfarm Business Sector Wage Index 1948-1962 (red)

Next, for all years:

Graph #2: Consumer Price Index (blue) and NBS Wage Index (red)

There are some differences, as at the 1980 peak (where wages don't keep up with prices) and for much of the 1990s (again, wages don't quite keep up). But these two datasets are remarkably similar. Shockingly similar, I'd say. Almost as if the one is calculated from the other.

Remarkable similarity, nonetheless. If the two series are calculated independently, I'd be tempted to paraphrase Parkinson's law and say prices rise to absorb the wages paid.

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